Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 8.813105 10.113543 11.514616 13.133261 14.948529 16.918244 19.213987
2026-01-18 6.712635 8.429620 10.425036 12.903012 15.884329 19.341606 23.639213
2026-01-25 5.726559 7.622961 9.936443 12.943238 16.721941 21.285399 27.182402
2026-02-01 4.991974 7.004371 9.568504 13.038268 17.568450 23.235204 30.805632
2026-02-08 4.367303 6.422545 9.144160 12.959640 18.108972 24.747828 33.872043
2026-02-15 3.844729 5.907678 8.739022 12.839616 18.543366 26.100624 36.754713
2026-02-22 3.473915 5.556717 8.509951 12.914537 19.208932 27.753571 40.073166
2026-03-01 3.239202 5.374136 8.491826 13.265911 20.254619 29.947716 44.202029
2026-03-08 2.889448 4.978261 8.122366 13.068104 20.486795 31.001010 46.771593
2026-03-15 2.498600 4.475712 7.545541 12.508409 20.138505 31.189504 48.095773
2026-03-22 2.360968 4.366902 7.561731 12.842964 21.125853 33.333308 52.305986
2026-03-29 2.218014 4.233757 7.525104 13.084946 21.974299 35.297105 56.318730
2026-04-05 2.016942 3.984972 7.286712 12.996329 22.316229 36.537300 59.340839
2026-04-12 1.828333 3.739172 7.032710 12.861749 22.572458 37.652403 62.215791
2026-04-19 1.684876 3.559815 6.874442 12.869075 23.046168 39.108589 65.652499
2026-04-26 1.571172 3.424357 6.780378 12.975126 23.680295 40.834116 69.565026
2026-05-03 1.440572 3.242436 6.587558 12.892843 23.988032 42.042338 72.695074
2026-05-10 1.317908 3.063196 6.384183 12.774744 24.221656 43.130454 75.661553
2026-05-17 1.231722 2.949251 6.292495 12.848847 24.784473 44.771332 79.570934
2026-05-24 1.185963 2.915476 6.350193 13.198827 25.844262 47.272693 84.971601
2026-05-31 1.081045 2.743240 6.124578 13.001839 25.915415 48.107849 87.631844
2026-06-07 0.948196 2.494139 5.725293 12.444666 25.300209 47.739740 88.248017
2026-06-14 0.916140 2.471187 5.783259 12.777717 26.333468 50.249791 93.825747